The News & TeleGraff

Karl Rove's op-ed in the Wall Street Journal today, "The New Rules of Politics," outlines what he sees as the new rules of politics—three of the four "new rules" he cites specifically apply to "The First Campaign."

The first two:

- Television ads don't matter as much as they used to. Going on the air with the earliest and most ads doesn't count for nearly as much as it once did. Campaigning this time has been so intense, long and geared toward retail politics that people -- especially in the early states -- form opinions that are difficult to alter by early and voluminous advertising. Mr. Romney, who spent $2.4 million on TV ads in Iowa beginning last February, found that out.

Voters are discounting advertising. They may be blocking out ads, relying more on personal exposure, information from social networks, alternative information sources like talk radio and the Internet, and local media coverage. By Feb. 5, when it costs $16 million to burn one television spot in every state that's voting, it's simply too expensive to be on air everywhere at once.

The 20th century's closing decades saw the rise of the TV ad man as the most potent operator in presidential campaigns. The 21st century's opening decade is seeing the rise of the communications director and press spokesman as the more important figures on a campaign staff. It is the age of the Internet, cable TV, YouTube, multiple news cycles in one day, and the need for really instantaneous response. Ads and ad makers are still vital -- but not nearly as much as they were just a few years ago.

- Technology allows a candidate to raise money quickly and inexpensively. The Internet dramatically shortens the gap between political success and raising money. Under the old regime, members of the finance committee would start calling a few days after a successful debate and FedEx'ing the checks. Mail pieces might hit 10 days later. Fundraising required events with weeks of advance notice. Today, if you do well in a debate on Tuesday night you can begin raising large sums of money Wednesday morning. Effective fundraising can be a mouse-click away.

The latter rule concerning technology and fundraising was something I actually blogged about earlier this month, predicting that Barack Obama would see a tidal wave of money pour in. After his blow-out South Carolina victory last weekend, Obama was actually raising $400,000 an hour.

Karl Rove's third applicable rule—"the big bounce is gone"—actually is a central tenet of "The First Campaign": The new playing field, driven and reshaped by technology at every turn, leaves a frontrunner vulnerable right up until Election Day. It's impossible to build the dominance a leader was able to build thanks to the technological innovations of online fundraising and the splintering of the once-closely held media monopoly.

This is really turning out to be a fascinating race. Who knows what'll happen next Tuesday?